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☆ The U.S. is now Germany’s biggest trading partner — taking over from China
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Photo: Christoph Soeder/dpa (Photo by Christoph Soeder/picture alliance via Getty Images)After years of China being Germany's main trading partner, the U.S. looks like it's quietly taking that top spot as the year progresses. Several factors played a role in the change, Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING Research, told CNBC. […] At the same time, decoupling from China, weaker domestic demand in China and China being able to produce goods it previously imported from Germany (mainly cars) reduced German exports to China," he said. China has been Germany's biggest trading partner for years, but the gap between China and the U.S. narrowed in recent years. The U.S. has also long been a bigger market for German exports than China, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC.

Persons: Habeck, Christoph Soeder, it's, Carsten Brzeski, Holger Schmieding, China's, Schmieding Organizations: German, Getty, U.S, CNBC, Reuters, ING Research, Berenberg Bank Locations: Germany, China, U.S

☆ Golden visas attracted wealthy Americans to Southern Europe. Then their housing crisis followed.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Eliza Relman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

This is in part the doing of so-called "golden visas," hugely popular residency visas for foreign investors. And they purchased more Portuguese golden visas than any other nationality in 2022. Related storiesBut as Portugal has experienced a worsening housing affordability crisis, Portuguese public opinion on golden visas has soured. Last year, the country changed the terms of its golden visa program to exclude real estate investment. Other southern European countries are following suit, similarly pointing to skyrocketing real estate prices.

Persons: —, They're, they're, João Pereira dos Santos, Pereira dos Santos, Nuno Fazenda, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, David Zorrakino Organizations: Service, Business, The New York Times, School of Economics, Finance, Queen Mary University of London, State, Tourism, Trade, Services, Bloomberg, Berenberg Bank, Getty, European Central Bank, Paris Locations: Greece, Portugal, Tourism, Lisbon, Athens, Spain, Southern Europe, Portuguese, London, Ramblas, Barcelona, Catalonia, Europe, Germany, Netherlands, France

☆ European Central Bank posts first annual loss in two decades
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Rain falls over the finance district and the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany. The European Central Bank on Thursday reported its first annual loss since 2004, following hefty payouts due to higher interest rates. The central bank said it will carry forward the loss on its balance sheet to offset against future profits. The central bank began quantitative tightening in March 2023. There is no institution in the economy which can cope with a temporary loss better than the central bank," he told CNBC by email.

Persons: Germany's Bundesbank, Holger Schmieding Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, CNBC Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Ukraine

☆ Germany’s economy is on shaky ground and glimmers of hope are few and far between
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-12 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"The data confirm that German industry is still in recession," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC. Exports – which are a major cornerstone of the German economy – fell by 4.6% in December and 1.4%, or 1.562 trillion euros ($1.68 trillion), across the year. Meanwhile, factory orders data seemed promising at first glance as it reflected an 8.9% increase in December compared to November. "Orders excluding large-scale orders actually fell to a post-pandemic low," she added. For 2023 overall in comparison to the previous year, factory orders were down 5.9%.

Persons: Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, Christian Lindner, Holger Schmieding, –, Franziska Palmas, Schmieding Organizations: Greens, Federal, Economic Affairs, of Finance, Berenberg Bank, CNBC, Industrial, Capital Economics Locations: Germany, Europe

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Europe’s economy failed to expand at the end of 2023, with the stagnation now lasting for more than a year amid higher energy prices, costlier credit and lagging growth in powerhouse Germany. Zero economic growth for the October-to-December period of last year follows a 0.1% contraction in the three months before that, according to figures released Tuesday by EU statistics agency Eurostat. That extends a miserable run of economic blahs: The 20 countries that use the euro currency have not shown significant growth since the third quarter of 2022, when the economy grew 0.5%. With higher shipping costs and delays to products from clothes to keyboard components, concerns are growing of new consumer price spikes if the conflict in Gaza drags on or escalates. The trade disruption could add as much as 0.5% to core inflation, which excludes volatile fuel and food prices, Oxford Economics said.

Persons: ”, Holger Schmieding, Yemen's Houthi Organizations: EU, Eurostat, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, ECB, Hamas, Oxford Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Suez, Asia, Europe, Berenberg, United States, Russia, Ukraine, Red, Africa, Gaza

☆ European Central Bank to focus on shrinking balance sheet as markets bet on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-13 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFRANKFURT — The European Central Bank meets this week with investors closely monitoring to see when the Frankfurt institution might start to cut interest rates. "Nonetheless, markets will probably have to correct some of their overoptimistic rate cut expectations once the ECB has spoken this Thursday." watch nowMoney markets are currently pricing in almost 150 basis points of rate cuts next year. The PEPP, or the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, is a flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Holger Schmieding, Isabel Schnabel, Mark Wall Organizations: European Central Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, FRANKFURT, ECB, Reuters, Deutsche Bank Locations: Frankfurt, Berenberg

It's clear how that will end.”Germany’s constitutional court has voided some 60 billion euros ($65 billion) in spending for this year and next. Without yet another emergency declaration next year, the government would have to scramble to cover shortfalls of roughly 30 billion to 40 billion euros — plus 20 billion to 30 billion euros for 2025 — compared with earlier plans, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank. The fallout has left Germany projected to be the worst-performing major economy this year, shrinking by 0.5%, according to the International Monetary Fund. That has led to calls from some to loosen the debt limits because they restrict the government's response to new challenges. Yet even some opposition state governors have said the debt limits should be loosened.

Persons: Chancellor Olaf Scholz, “ We've, Robert Habeck, “, ”, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Free Democrats doesn't, Kai Wegener Organizations: U.S, International Monetary Fund, Industry, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, Benz, Seven, Social Democrats, Greens, Free Democrats, Christian Democrats, Berlin Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Ukraine, Russia, China, Berenberg, East Germany, Europe, Britain, U.S, Italy, Japan

It follows Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the loss of Moscow's cheap natural gas — an unprecedented shock to Germany’s energy-intensive industries, long the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe. The loss of cheap Russian natural gas needed to power factories “painfully damaged the business model of the German economy,” Kullmann told The Associated Press. One hotly debated solution: a government-funded cap on industrial electricity prices to get the economy through the renewable energy transition. However, squabbling among the coalition government over the energy price cap and a law barring new gas furnaces has exasperated business leaders. “The perception of Germany's underlying strength may also have contributed to the misguided decisions to exit nuclear energy, ban fracking for natural gas and bet on ample natural gas supplies from Russia,” he said.

Persons: “, Christian Kullmann, Kullmann, ” Kullmann, Evonik, Robert Habeck, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Angela Merkel, —, Biden, Scholz, Evonik's Kullmann, Gerhard Schroeder, Holger Schmieding, ”, ” Schmieding, Schmieding Organizations: Jobs, International Monetary Fund, European Union, Evonik Industries, Associated Press, Greens Party, Social Democrat, Free Democrats, Companies, Schott AG, ” Locations: ESSEN, Germany, Ukraine, Europe, Europe's, Essen, Russia, Moscow, China, Bavarian, U.S, Lafayette , Indiana, Brussels, Berlin, Chile, Qatar, ” Germany, Berenberg

☆ Major central banks are on the brink of peak rates — but the inflation battle might not be over
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023. The ECB raised interest rates again, acting for the 10th consecutive time to choke inflation out of the euro zone's increasingly feeble economy. The European Central Bank last week signaled that its Governing Council feels rates may have got there. Federal ReserveFed Chair Jerome Powell made clear last month that further hikes were on the table, and the central bank is deeply concerned about inflation experiencing a fresh acceleration if financial conditions ease. The consumer price index rose at its fastest monthly rate this year in August, mainly driven by energy prices, and was 3.7% year-on-year.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Berenberg's Holger Schmieding, Raphael Thuin, Thuin, Jerome Powell, J . Safra Sarasin Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Bloomberg, Getty, Deutsche Bank, Tikehau, Federal, U.S . Federal, J ., Fed, Markets, Reuters, Bank of England Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, U.S

☆ Europe stocks extend gains after ECB hikes to record level, hints at peak rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The ECB increased interest rates by 25 basis points, a 10th consecutive hike taking its main rate to a record high of 4%. But perhaps the biggest development came in a firm suggestion ECB Governing Council members do not expect further rate hikes at this time, and that rates may be held steady for some time. "The Governing Council's future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary." U.S. futures were cautiously higher after Thursday's rally off the back of the blockbuster IPO of Arm Holdings. The session also saw the release of the U.S. producer price index, a key inflation metric that came in above estimates.

Persons: Holger Schmieding Organizations: Household, ECB, Staff, Arm Holdings Locations: Berenberg . Asia, Pacific, U.S

☆ ECB rate decision: Low conviction call is that there will be no hike, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB rate decision: Low conviction call is that there will be no hike, economist saysHolger Schmieding of Berenberg Economics says growth is softer than the European Central Bank expected.

Persons: Holger Schmieding Organizations: European Central Bank

☆ Germany is the 'sick man of Europe' — and it's causing a shift to the right, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The "sick man of Europe" moniker has resurfaced in recent weeks as manufacturing output continues to stutter in the region's largest economy and the country grapples with high energy prices. It "has to do with the automobile industry, which is the heart of the German industry and many things hinge on that," he said. Germany reported a foreign trade deficit for the first time in decades in May 2022, totaling 1 billion euros ($1.03 billion). Plunge in business sentimentSinn said investor doubts about the feasibility of Germany's sustainability goals also play into the description of the country as the "sick man of Europe." Uncertainty about energy prices has likely contributed to a "plunge" in business sentiment, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, wrote in the note.

Persons: Hans, Werner Sinn, Sinn, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick, Thomas Lohnes, Berenberg, Holger Schmieding Organizations: European Central Bank, Getty, Ambrosetti, Berenberg Locations: Germany, Europe, Italy, Ukraine, Frankfurt, Saudi Arabia

☆ Why some are calling the German economy 'the sick man of Europe'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —It’s been nearly two decades since Germany shrugged off its “sick man of Europe” label with a series of labor market reforms that ushered in years of economic outperformance. Sticky inflation and three straight quarters of falling or stagnating output have put Europe’s biggest economy in the doldrums. “Sticky” inflation is eroding Germans’ purchasing power, fueling “pessimism among households,” according to Thomas Obst, senior economist at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. “[German] industrial order books have emptied over the last 12 months,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN. “Germany is in a very singular position.”Bright spotsHolger Schmieding, the economist who first called Germany the “sick man of Europe” in 1998, thinks the “current wave of pessimism” over its economy is overdone.

Persons: London CNN — It’s, Stefan Kooths, Europe ”, Kooths, Thomas Obst, Obst, ”, Klaus Wohlrabe, Frank Soellner, ” Carsten Brzeski, Sam Reeves, Brzeski, David Hecker, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, “ Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, Kiehl Institute, Cologne Institute, Economic Research, CNN, European Central Bank, ifo, Volkswagen, Siemens, Global, ING, Getty, China Locations: Germany, Europe, Berlin, ifo, Bad, China, Duisburg, AFP, Ukraine, Australia, France

☆ Germany is struggling to move away from its ‘sick man of Europe’ image
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Germany was first described with that moniker in 1998 as the country navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy. The issues weighing on Germany's economy can be separated into "two very separate battles," Stefan Kooths, research director for business cycles and growth at the Kiel Institute for World Economy, told CNBC. "It is a different sickness [compared to] 20 years ago," Brzeski told CNBC. Energy obstaclesLike most of Europe, Germany's energy prices have been volatile following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "Many Germany-headquartered businesses are doing well globally, but they are struggling with operations in their own country," Siegfried Russwurm, head of the German Industry Federation, told CNBC in June.

Persons: DANIEL ROLAND, aren't, it's, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Jasmin Groeschl, Stefan Kooths, Carsten Brzeski, China's, Brzeski, Groeschl, Joerg Kraemer, Kooths, Siegfried Russwurm Organizations: Frankfurt Cathedral, AFP, Getty, International Monetary Fund, Berenberg, CNBC, Europe, Allianz, Kiel Institute, World, ING Research, German Industry Federation Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, France, China, Kiel, Ukraine

☆ Europe’s economy is growing again as inflation continues to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —The euro area economy is growing again. Separately, official data showed that the overall rate of inflation continued to fall this month. The consumer price index for the euro area rose by 5.3%, down from 5.5% in June. Germany stagnated last quarter, but that was a modest improvement from the previous six months, when Europe’s biggest economy was stuck in recession. Demand for business loans in the euro area fell to a record low in the second quarter, according to a survey published by the ECB last week.

Persons: “, Putin, ” Holger Schmieding, Michael Probst, Christine Lagarde Organizations: London CNN, Gross, ECB, European Central Bank Locations: Ukraine, Germany, Frankfurt

☆ France's Macron seeks to show he's no lame duck as pension discontent rumbles on
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

France's President Emmanuel Macron looks on in a meeting with JP Morgan CEO during the 5th edition of the "Choose France" Business Summit, in Versailles, southwest of Paris, on July 11, 2022. Around 8,000 demonstrators took to the streets of Toulouse, France, on June 06, 2023, protesting against the government. "They know Macron has no alternative than to rely on them, making it almost impossible to develop the centrist domestic project," he said. This is largely attributable to Macron's agenda," Schmieding said, adding France was replacing Germany was the most dynamic major European economy. French President Emmanuel Macron and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands at a Franco-Chinese business council meeting in Beijing, China April 6, 2023.

Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Morgan, Ludovic Marin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Macron, Renaud Foucart, Foucart, Les Republicains, Mujtaba Rahman, Rahman, Bruno Le Maire, Elon Musk, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Xi Jinping Organizations: Business, Afp, Getty, Nurphoto, Lancaster University, Eurasia Group, Macron, Finance, EU, U.S, Elon Locations: Versailles, Paris, Germany, Union, Toulouse, France, China, Ukraine, Europe, Beijing

☆ German industrial orders fall unexpectedly in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

June 6 (Reuters) - German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in April, dragged down by large-scale orders, data from the federal statistics office showed on Tuesday. Industrial orders fell by 0.4% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis. Excluding large-scale orders, there was an increase of 1.4% in April compared to the previous month. Year-on-year, industrial orders were down 9.9% in April. Domestic orders rose by 1.6%, while foreign orders sank by 1.8% on the previous month, the statistics office data showed.

Persons: Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Franzisca Palmas, Maria Martinez, Anastasiia, Rachel More Organizations: Reuters, Companies, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Franzisca, Europe, Berlin, Gdansk

"Germans are cautious by nature," said Stephan Fetsch, Germany's head of consumer goods at KPMG. Economists polled by Reuters are split on its second quarter fortunes: views ranged from a 0.3% GDP fall to a 0.5% gain, with a median forecast of 0.2% growth. However, German consumer sentiment remains below its pandemic low in the spring of 2020 and the consumer barometer from the German Retail Association (HDE) shows a similar picture. German consumers were hit particularly hard by high energy prices, being more dependent on Russia gas. "The German consumer has reasons to be scared and the result of all the economic uncertainty is usually an increase in precautionary savings," said Michael Burda, economics professor at Humboldt University Berlin.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Germany's, Stephan Fetsch, Holger Schmieding, Carsten Brzeski, KPMG's Fetsch, Joerg Kraemer, Michael Burda, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, KPMG, Reuters, German Retail Association, Berenberg, ING, European Central Bank, Humboldt University Berlin, Thomson Locations: Cologne, Germany, BERLIN, Europe, France, Italy, Russia, Berlin, China, Bengaluru

☆ German exports rise unexpectedly in April on China reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, June 5 (Reuters) - German exports rose unexpectedly in April, boosted by deliveries to China following its post-pandemic reopening, but analysts warned that the momentum could be short-lived. German exports increased by 1.2% on the previous month, the federal statistics office said. Exports to China were up 10.1%, while exports to the U.S. were up 4.7% and exports to the European Union rose 4.5%, the office said. The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 18.4 billion euros ($19.68 billion) in April, up from 14.9 billion euros the previous month. "The temporary push in exports to China will fade with time," ING's global head of macro at ING Carsten Brzeski told Reuters.

Persons: Alexander Krueger, Hauck Aufhaeuser, Claus Vistesen, ING Carsten Brzeski, Holger Schmieding, Klaus Wohlrabe, Rachel More, Maria Martinez, Kirsti Knolle, Gareth Jones Organizations: Reuters, European Union, Macroeconomics, ING, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, China, Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe, U.S, Ifo

"We are not pausing - that is very clear," ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference. NOT FED DEPENDENTShe also dismissed the notion that the ECB would have to pause if its U.S. counterpart did so, saying the ECB was "not Fed-dependent". The German 10-year yield , the euro zone benchmark, fell as much as 7 basis points to a one-month low of 2.18%. "In a nod to the hawks, the ECB hinted at 'future decisions' in the plural," Holger Schmieding at Berenberg said. Firms in the services sector especially have complained of labour shortages, suggesting that more wage pressures could come this summer.

☆ It’s getting ‘substantially’ harder for Europe’s businesses and homebuyers to get loans
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

In the first quarter of 2023, net demand for loans to businesses fell the most since the end of 2008, the central bank found after polling 158 banks in the region between March 22 and April 6. “From a historical perspective, the pace of net tightening in credit standards remained at the highest level since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2011,” the ECB said. The central bank has made clear that it won’t ease the most intense campaign of rate hikes in its history until it is certain inflation is under control. “What really matters,” she added, is that inflation recedes to the central bank’s 2% target over the medium term. “Eurozone banks are already generally tightening credit standards and terms and loan demand is decreasing,” Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding said in a note to clients.

Summary German public sector secures 5.5% rise for 2024Deal sets precedent, piles pressure on ECB's forecastsECB to raise rates on May 4FRANKFURT, April 24 (Reuters) - The "very generous" pay rise secured by Germany's public sector workers may complicate the European Central Bank's fight against inflation, analysts said on Monday. "The permanent increase next year may raise some eyebrows at the ECB because wages were supposed to peak this year," Natixis economist Dirk Schumacher said. Other economists noted the German public sector pay agreement followed a period of falling real wages, when prices grow faster than salaries. "Doves may argue that the deal comes after a period of wage restraint and is reasonably front-loaded," Christian Schulz, an economist at Citi, said. "This means that it will probably take at least another five years for public sector wages to recover this loss of purchasing power and for employees to have the standard of living they had in 2021," Fratzscher said.

☆ UBS to take over Credit Suisse, central banks act on liquidity
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-19 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) -UBS sealed a deal to buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in an effort to avoid further market-shaking turmoil in global banking, Swiss authorities said on Sunday. FILE PHOTO: The logo of Credit Suisse is pictured in front of the Swiss Parliament Building, in Bern, Switzerland, March 19, 2023. The reports that UBS is acquiring Credit Suisse will likely magnify Credit Suisse’s problems by moving them to UBS... The Credit Suisse issues are not new and needed to be resolved years ago. A legal challenge by Credit Suisse shareholders, who will claim that their property has been illegally confiscated, is guaranteed.

☆ Europe didn't roll back post-2008 banking rules. That was smart
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

London CNN —Shares in European banks slumped Wednesday as speculation about the health of Credit Suisse (CSGKF) reignited the market turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Europe’s benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, which tracks 42 big EU and UK banks, has fallen 13% since last Wednesday’s close. In 2018, former President Donald Trump watered down key parts of the Dodd-Frank Act, which set stricter rules for the banking sector. But European banks are required to hold capital to cover the risk of a large and sudden change in borrowing costs. “This means that European banks have less exposure to market risk on bonds, despite a similar rise in yields,” Moody’s said in its note.

☆ Major central banks set to signal interest rate glide path in crucial week for monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A screen displays the Fed rate announcement as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are all expected to hike interest rates once again this week, as they make their first policy announcements of 2023. Economists will be watching policymakers' rhetoric closely for clues on the path of future rate hikes this year, as the three major central banks try to engineer a soft landing for their respective economies without allowing inflation to regain momentum. The market is now pricing in this eventuality, but the key question is what the FOMC will indicate about further rate hikes in 2023. "Fewer hikes might be needed if the recent weakening in business confidence captured by the survey data depresses hiring and investment more than we think, substituting for additional rate hikes," Mericle said.

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